The global economy exhausts its cycle by slowing down after having reached the highest level of growth during 2018, until it approaches the current values that are in line with its trend growth.
In this new context, the US economy plays a central role on the future development of the world economy. This is because of its international visibility, the implications of its trade policy, and its effect on the financial markets.
In general, 2019 is expected to be a year with less intense growth both in economic activity and in prices with asymmetric financial conditions between the different economies. Although there are indications of imbalances in the balance sheets of certain economic agents, none of them imply a risk that transforms into a global crises, but rather and orderly change.
Global growth could be around 3.3% in 2019. Developed markets will grow by 2%, supported by domestic demands, gains in financial and real wealth and financial conditions. On the other hand, emerging markets are expected to grow 5%, due to an improvement in global financial conditions and to the relaxation in the rate of depreciation of currencies.
The Eurozone notes the slowdown already seen since the second quarter of 2018, after having reached the cyclical peak in the transition between 2017 and 2018.
The most recent data anticipate a growth of the Eurozone in 2018 that will not exceed 1.9% in 2018 (far from 2.5% in 2017), and given the more advanced indicators such as the PMIs, the slowdown is likely to continue during 2019. Thus, it is not expected to grow more than 1.7% this year.
Global monetary policy is also defined by asymmetry. The bias towards neutrality of the US Federal Reserve stands out against the continued laxity of the Bank of Japan and, to a lesser extent, the European Central Bank. And all this in view of the expectation of relief in emerging markets after the tightening of their monetary position in 2018 as a response to the action of the Federal Reserve. Thus, the divergences in monetary policy between the United States and other developed markets will result in the maintenance of a relatively appreciated dollar, especially against the Euro and the Yen, and in a still depreciated position of emerging currencies.
As always, the proper coordination of fiscal and monetary policies will be the key factor in the realization of these scenarios.
Riċerka ta’ MAPFRE tbassar tnaqqis fl-ekonomija globali
Skond riċerka tal-Kumpanija Globali MAPFRE, l-ekonomija globali mistennija tasal fi tmiem ċiklu tagħha, wara li laħqet l-ogħla livell ta’ tkabbir matul l-2018, sakhemm il-valuri attwali ikunu konformi mat-tkabbir.
F’dan il-kuntest, l-ekonomija tal-Istati Uniti għadha rwol importanti fl-iżvillup tal-ekonomija globali. Dan minħabba il-livell ta’ viżibilità internazzjonali tagħha, l-implikazzjonijiet tal-kummerċ u l-effett tagħha fuq is-swieq finanzjarji.
Is-sena id-dieħla mistenni li jkun hemm tkabbir inqas kemm fl-attività ekonomika u fil-prezzijiet minħabba kundizzjonijiet finanzjarji mhux indaqs bejn ekonomiji differenti. Għalkhemm huma mistennija xi żbilanċi ekonomiċi, m’hemmx riskji li kapaċi jwassal għal kriżijiet globali u din il-bidla mistennija issir b’mod ordnat.
It-tkabbir globali mistenni jkun ta’ madwar 3.3% fl-2019. Is-swieq żviluppati mistennija jikbru bi 2%, appoġġati minn domandi domestiċi, qligħ finanzjarju u kundizzjonijiet. Min-naħa l-oħra, swieq li għadhom qed jikbru mistennija jikbru b’5%, konsegwenza ta’ titjib fil-kundizzjonijiet finanzjarji globali u minħabba it-tnaqqis fir-rata ta’ deprezzament tal-munita.
Iż-Żona ta ’l-Euro tinnota li fit-tieni kwart tal-2018, diġà kien hemm xi tnaqqis, wara li iċ-ċiklu ekonomiku laħħaq il-quċċatta bejn l-2017 u -2018. L-informazzjoni turi li it-tkabbir f’din iż-żona mhux se taqbez l-1.9% ( 2.5% inqas mill-2017) u it-tnaqqis mistenni jkompli matul l-2019, b’livell ta’ tkabbir mistenni jkun ta’ 1.7%.
Il-Politika monetarja ukoll mistennija jkolla xi żbillanċi. Dan minħabba kundizzjonijiet fir-Riżerva Federali tal-Istati Uniti li jispikkaw kontra dawk fil-Bank tal-Ġappun u sa ċertu punt ukoll fil-Bank Ċentrali Ewropew. Din il-politika b’hekk twassal għall-tisħiħ fid-dollaru kontra l-Euro u l-Yen. Bħal dejjem ,il-politika fiskali xierqa tkun fattur ewlieni li jikkontrolla dawn ix-xenarji.
